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Nobel Prize-winner celebrates at UC
Published by the Communications and Development Department
10 October 2003
The joint winner of the 2003 Nobel Prize for Economics, Emeritus Professor Clive Granger, celebrated his win this week with colleagues at the University of Canterbury.
Professor Granger, who retired earlier this year from the University of California at San Diego, is currently based at Canterbury’s Economics Department where he is researching long-term forecasting. News of his win came in a 3am phone call from Sweden. “I thought it was a hoax, it took a few moments for me to realise the call was genuine.”
Professor Granger shares the $2.2 million prize with friend and long-time colleague Professor Robert Engle, who now teaches finance at the Stern School of Business at New York University. The two academics were honoured for their work in the 1970s in developing statistical tools that have improved the forecasting of rates of economic growth, interest rates and stock prices.
In announcing the award, the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, said the two economists had devised new methods for measuring volatility, or the rate at which prices, interest and other economic variables move up and down.
Professor Engel was honoured for his work on “economic time series” which resulted in models that “have become indispensable tools not only for researchers, but for analysts on financial markets, who use them in asset pricing in evaluating portfolio risk,” the Academy said.
Professor Granger focused on nonstationery time series, which help analysts adjust their data for the long-term effects of short term phenomenon. This has improved research in areas such as wealth and consumption, exchange rates and price levels as well as short and long-term interest rates.
“When I started studying economics I never thought it would lead to a Nobel Prize. I wasn’t aiming for it either, I was just trying to do a decent job as an academic,” said the 69-year-old professor.
“I have had other honours but you can’t beat this one. It’s the top.” Professor Granger, who admits to being in awe of past winners, said he expects the win will mean a few changes. “We certainly won’t be travelling economy class on airlines any more,” he joked.
“I’m hoping when I express an opinion now it will have more weight.” Within minutes of the phone call notifying him of his success, the Welsh-born professor began fielding phone calls from media around the world. He has also been inundated with messages of congratulations from colleagues and friends.
“The news still hasn’t sunk in.”
Head of Economics Professor Les Oxley said it was a great honour to have a Nobel Laureate in the department. Professor Oxley said an office sweepstake on the likely winner had put Professor Granger as the leading contender.
“It is the fourth year we’ve run the sweepstake and each year the department has correctly predicted the winner.”
Professor Granger first came to Canterbury as an Erskine Fellow in 2000. He enjoyed his time so much he came back the following year.
“We love New Zealand and Canterbury University is a great place to work.” Professor Granger had planned to spend two months at Canterbury but will now have to cut short the visit in order to get to Stockholm for the award ceremony on 10 December. He will be accompanied by his wife Patricia and son and daughter.
Professor Granger is the second Erskine Fellow to go on and win a Nobel Prize for Economics. American Professor Gerard Debreu, an Erskine Fellow in 1969 and visiting professor in 1973, won the Nobel Prize in 1983.
• The Erskine Fellowship was set up in 1960 following a bequest to the University by graduate John Angus Erskine. The fund, now worth at least $30 million, pays for up to 70 overseas academics to visit the University each year to lecture in the faculties of commerce, science and engineering. The fund also allows up to 25 Canterbury academics from the three faculties to visit overseas institutions to further their knowledge. For more information visit Erskine Fellowship on the University web.
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