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Research project pours cold water on climate change predictionsPublished by the Communications and Development Department
10 August 2004
Current predictions about the likely impact of global warming on marine eco-systems could be blown out of the water by the findings of an 18-year research project on the California coastline involving a University of Canterbury researcher.
Associate Professor David Schiel (Biological Sciences) and his US collaborators found the discharge of hot water from the cooling system at a power generating plant near Diablo Cove had, what they describe as, a dramatic impact.
The discharge caused the seawater temperature in the Cove to increase by an average of 3.5 degrees Celsius over a 10-year period, impacting heavily on 150 species of seaweed and animals.
Many kelp and large seaweeds virtually disappeared, the numbers of grazing snails and sea urchins increased and abalone were found to have died-off in that time.
Professor Schiel says the findings strongly indicate that the commonly held belief that cold-water species affected by warming seawaters will be replaced by warm-water species is wrong.
“We found there was no replacement of cold-water species. Our study clearly shows that changes in marine systems due to warming are unlikely to be simple,“ he says.
“If ocean warming continues, our study implies that large and mostly unpredicted changes may occur in nearshore communities.
“The changes were real, lasting and comprehensive, providing both clues and a caution about predicting effects of climate change.”
For further information please contact: John MacDonald Tel: +64-3-364 2910
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